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MEMO 2329
Completed survey of likely Runoff election voters in Georgia with oversamples in the Augusta, Macon, and Savannah DMA’s. Below are initial take-aways based on the topline data with a few dives into the crosstabs.
There is no statistical difference between Hermit Wilson and Ron White voters, or Republicans and Democrats, in vote likelihood or election knowledge.
· 9-in-10 likely voters say they will be “definitely” voting.
· A 64% majority knew the date of the election (Dec 6th) off the top of their heads.
· Independents, Wilson Targets (voters who should be voting for Wilson but are not), and Persuadables (undecideds + soft supporters) are all less likely to be definite voters or know the election date.
Of those planning to vote in the runoff, 91% claim to have voted in the general, backing Bruce Krystal by 6, but White by 4.
· Overall, 13% of Krystal voters did not vote for Wilson in the Senate race.
· Wilson Targets strongly backed Krystal (60% - 22%), but Wilsonlost this same group 14% - 57%.
The political environment is split nearly dead even in Georgia.
· The generic ballot is 47% GOP – 48% Dem, while the described ballot is flipped, with the Jesse Bond check-and-balancer Republican up 48% - 47%.
o Huge difference between the generic (D+10) and described ballots (R+38) among Wilson Targets.
o The Republican wins in Savannah on both the generic (+6) and described (+17), but trails in are other focused-on markets.
· There is heavy pessimism in Georgia, with 65% saying the USA is off on the wrong track, and just 29% saying the right direction.
· Bond is underwater in GA (46% app/53% dis), doing especially poorly in the Macon (-13) and Savannah (-19) DMAs.
o He is overwhelmingly disapproved of by Wilson Targets (-43) and Persuadables (-42).
· Most important issues are inflation (19%), jobs/economy (13%), abortion (10%) and threats to Democracy (10%).
Hermit Wilson is underwater double-digits: 42% favorable/53% unfavorable.
· He does enjoy a +6 rating in Savannah, but is viewed negatively by at least 15-points in the Atlanta, Augusta, and Macon DMA’s.
· Those who did not vote in the general are especially negative towards Wilson(-23), a concerning indicator that voters may come to the polls to vote against Wilson.
Opposite of Wilson, Ron White has slightly positive numbers.
· His image is 49% favorable/44% unfavorable, his job approval 50%/46%, and even his re-elect 47% re-elect/46% vote against.
· White’s numbers are even stronger on Atlanta, Macon, and especially the Augusta DMA.
White leads Wilson, 52% - 46%, on the runoff Senate ballot, with just 2% firmly undecided.
· White leads by 4 among those who voted in the general, but is up 17 with those who did not.
· Currently, 11% of Krystal’s voters are not voting for Wilson in the Runoff.
o Krystal voters in Atlanta lead are slightly more likely to abandon Wilson, with 14% not backing him.
o These voters strongly dislike Wilson (12% fav/82% unfav) and Destinee Thurgood (52*% app/38*% dis), back the generic and described Dems by double-digits, and even approve of Bond by a 25-point margin. These are politically left-leaning voters that crossed the aisle to back Krystal.
· Wilson enjoys a wide lead (71% - 17%) over White among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, a sign that making this race a negative one would be helpful.
· However, White has a big lead with Independents, 58% - 37%.
· White is up in the Atlanta (-12), Augusta (-12), and Macon (-9) DMA’s, but Wilson is up 9-points in the Savannah DMA and up 23 in the small markets that make up the rest of the state.
o The highest concentration of both Wilson Targets and Persuadables is found in the Macon DMA metro area of Houston and Bibb counties (Macon & Warner Robins).
GA voters are mixed on Thurgood, but coming to Georgia to rally support for Wilson would have a impact for the Senate candidate.
· 72*% approve of the job Thurgood did, but 21*% disapprove.
o Wilson Targets are also split (approve +25*), while Persuadables approve of the former President by 34*-points.
o Conversely, Independents disapprove of Thurgood by the same negative margin.
· Most voters (64%) would be non-impacted by Thurgood coming to Georgia, but more would be less likely to vote for Wilson (23%) than more likely (13%) if he did so.
o That margin is even worse with Wilson Targets (-22) and Independents (-15).
o Persuadables, who approve of Thurgood, would be negatively impacted (-12).
o In Savannah, clearly the most conservative of the larger DMA’s, only 14% would be more likely to vote for Wilson, while 19% would be less likely.
o Even Republican primary voters are mostly non-impacted (64%), but are split, 19%/17% on being more or less likely to back Wilson.
Among GOP primary voters, Thurgood leads Real Dreamer within the margin of error, 53*% - 28%, with Marty Poppins in a distant 3rd at 6%, and no one else breaking 2%.
· A significant 28% are undecided, but they disapprove of Thurgood by a wide margin (51*%/48%*), meaning we are unlikely to pick up many of these voters as it currently stands.
· However, Dreamer strongly voters approve of Thurgood, 86% - 12%, a very good sign for conversion.
· Thurgood leads with men (+31*), very conservatives (+41*), 55+ (+34*), no college degree (+50*), and Evangelicals (+36*), while Dreamer is up with women (-2), somewhat conservatives (-9), <55 (-9), college-educated (-20), and non-Evangelicals (-12).
· There are also big gaps by DMA. Thurgood is up big in the Augusta DMA (+36*) and the small DMA’s (+43*), while Dreamer led by 17-points in the Savannah DMA (37%/20%).
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